The Not Doing of a Thing

 Yesterday—inexplicably—the stock market roared upward again, with some major indices gaining more than a full percentage point. How could this be? I wondered. What could stock traders possibly have to be optimistic about right now? 

Our president is a madman trying to dismantle the federal government. He's provoking needless trade wars against our allies and upsetting the global order. We just had two straight days of worrying inflation data. The Fed chair indicated that interest rates will not not be coming down anytime soon. What could this market possibly be feeling good about? 

The Wall Street Journal provided the answer. Apparently—according to the market's daily round-up—investors were celebrating the fact that Trump had delayed the implementation of his reciprocal tariff plans until April. In the meantime, he has invited federal agencies to "study" the issue—which many observers take as a sign either that the threatened tariffs will not come to pass, or that some trading partners will be able to bargain for ways to mitigate their impact before they do so. 

In other words, people are thrilled about the fact that Donald Trump didn't willfully torpedo the global economy for at least one more day. To be sure: he is still holding a loaded gun to the head of that world economy. The scaffold and the gallows are still ready to go. The firing squad is lining up. But, the president granted a last-minute stay of execution. And so, people are sighing with relief. Markets are jubilant. He could have destroyed us—but he didn't! We have at least a few more months of life!

Once again, it would seem, Trump benefits from setting the bar incredibly low. He is the past master of low expectations. He leads everyone to think he is such a lunatic that he will deliberately steer the plane into the mountain. And so, when he doesn't—when he pulls up at the last possible moment—everyone applauds him as a hero. He gets a free day of stock market tickers in the green—making him look good—simply by not doing a terrible thing that he could have done. 

I am reminded of a line from Donald Barthelme's satirical novella The King—in which King Arthur's Court manages to obtain a nuclear bomb but decides not to set it off. The King is flattered for this decision not to bring on armageddon: "That's astonishing," one of his knights declares: "Not doing a thing of this magnitude? I don't think there's been a king in the history of the world who's not done something on this scale." 

And indeed, our market today seems intent on flattering King Donald in the same terms. Not immediately imposing worldwide reciprocal tariffs in violation of World Trade Organization rules? Not needlessly and gratuitously sabotaging the global economy out of nowhere? What genius! What brilliant statecraft! Who could imagine not doing a thing of this magnitude? Has there ever before been a time in history when the not doing of a thing occurred on such a grand scale? Long live the king!

And so, the stock market trundles on its merry course. And yet, all the time—the underlying indicators are flashing red. Beneath the paper prosperity, our economy is getting even more inflationary, the debt is growing, and the president is trying to implement trade policies and tax cuts that would make both problems orders of magnitude worse. It would seem "the moles have built their palace beneath us," as Edna St. Vincent Millay once wrote—"we have not far to fall."