The Ceasefire

 Over the past week, people across the political spectrum have been joining their voices to sing the praises of Trump, for the supposed diplomatic masterstroke of negotiating the short-term Gaza ceasefire. Progressives and the far "Left" lined up to declare that the pause in fighting just before the inauguration proved that Biden had never really wanted to to achieve a ceasefire deal in the first place, and that Trump was showing himself to be the true man of peace. Conservatives declared it yet another vindication of Trump's mythic "negotiating skills," his "madman theory" of diplomacy, etc. 

Everyone seems to be at one, therefore, in ignoring the obvious unsavory aspects of what's happening here. One is that, when the ceasefire deal finally came—the only thing that made the difference was that Trump finally told the Israelis he was in favor of it. Of course, he could have told them the same thing at any time over the past year and saved potentially thousands of lives. But it was in his political interest not to do so (credit due here to Matt Yglesias for the insight). The fighting made Biden look bad, so Trump had every reason to prolong it. He therefore led the Israelis to believe he would back them, until it was no longer expedient to do so.

Then, there is the fact that Trump's waffling on his support for Israel may have its origins in something even uglier still than these calculations of political self-interest. After all, Trump has surrounded himself with literal, dyed-in-the-wool anti-Semites. Tucker Carlson, notoriously, has promoted Hitler apologetics and Holocaust denialism. Elon Musk enthusiastically retweeted this content when he did so. Both men are close to the president and play a major role as leading propagandists for the MAGA movement. And Tucker, at least, has also publicly opposed U.S. support for Israel. Hmm, I wonder why? 

It was not lost on everyone, for instance—that Tucker remained conspicuously seated during the Inauguration address when the rest of the room applauded and cheered for the released Israeli hostages. Why, then, do so many others persist in pretending we don't know what's going on here? Have we all forgotten already Tucker's pro-Hitler X interview just a few months ago? Have we forgotten that Musk—that "first buddy" of the president, who has ready access to his ear—boosted the same content? Have we forgotten Musk's support for the extreme right in Germany? That certain "awkward gesture" of his? 

Of course, Trump will continue to be able to obfuscate these overt signs of antisemitism in his political coalition—because he combines it, bizarrely, with his ongoing support for the extreme right settlement movement in Israel. (One of his first acts as president in this term, after all, was to lift Biden's sanctions against far-right Israeli settlers who have been linked to violence against Palestinians.) So, Trump has managed to appease many different stripes of fascist at once: the Neo-Nazi anti-Semites, the Israeli extreme right, and the "Left" fascists who applaud him, misleadingly, for the ceasefire. 

Then there is the fact—as most observers now grant—that the ceasefire will not actually hold for long. Hamas is taking advantage of the pause in hostilities to regroup, predictably (which is not a reason to oppose the ceasefire, but is perhaps a sign of why this was a harder calculation to make for Israelis than many wish to grant). The Israeli far right has engaged in lawless mob violence against Palestinians in the West Bank; and the IDF has deployed in the same territory, opening yet another front in this omnidirectional war. (There is also the recent IDF activity in Lebanon and Syria to consider.) 

It's hard to believe, in the midst of this picture, that we are actually making progress. People want to portray this deal as some great and lasting achievement of Trump's second presidency. The far left has an interest in doing so, because it gives them yet another reason to excuse their willingness to torpedo the Democrats' chances in the last election (which is otherwise very hard to reconcile with Trump's pronounced support for Israeli settler extremists). The right has an interest in doing so for more obvious reasons: they have been engaged in Trump apologetics all along. 

But what's actually happening, behind this Potemkin village of progress and "peace," is that an unholy alliance of far-left anti-Zionist extremists, far-right ultra-Zionist extremists, and far-right anti-Semitic extremists, have somehow formed an improbable union to elect a would-be dictator who poses the ultimate threat to world stability. Most of the media does not see it happening, because this strange coalition of pro- and anti-Israel forces is too unlikely to be believed. But it's true: all have found their different reasons for flattering Trump. 

This bizarre convergence doesn't change the fact that, from the standpoint of actual Palestinian and Israeli civilians hoping for a future in which neither has to fear being bombed or shot in their homes, the "progress" of the ceasefire deal must seem paper-thin. I still remember a time from the early stage of the war, when human rights observers first reported that Israel had dropped white phosphorus—an incendiary weapon—on populated areas in Gaza and Lebanon. I thought, in my despair, of Thomas Hardy's assessment of the hopes for human progress in the face of war, and it comes to mind again today: 

" Peace upon earth!" was said. We sing it,

And pay a million priests to bring it.

After two thousand years of mass

We've got as far as poison-gas.